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In and outs of the political campaigns, focusing on Michigan and Lansing, Tim Skubick will report regularly throughout the primary and then general election campaigns.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Foolish predictions

         Years ago when you had veteran legislative leaders at the helm, you could pretty much predict which direction the ship of state was headed. That meant if you reported such and such was going to happen on such and such day, you had a 99% shot at being correct.
       As we move into this critical final week of budget negotiations, you'd be stupid to make any predictions about what this relatively inexperienced bunch is going to do.  Oft times they don't know what they are going to do until they actually do it!
       But what they hey, let's be stupid.
(1)         They will not shutdown the government on October first.
(2)          That's because they will adopt an emergency budget that will give everyone 30 days to work out all the budget kinks, just in case they don't get in done early next week.
(3)         There will be a boat load of budget cuts that will produce howls from the cops on the beat to the teachers in the classroom
(4)         However, after they adopt all the cuts and allow the GOP to gloat that it passed a budget without new tax increases, they will come back and raise new revenue to restore some of the cuts they just made.
(5)         Sounds silly doesn't it, but this is the strategy that House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) and Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop (R) have apparently worked out.  The governor wants no part of the strategy because there is no "guarantee" the R's will pay off on their end of the bargain.
(6)         Republicans are headed to Mackinac Island this coming weekend where about 2,000 bedrock, hard nosed, anti-tax grass roots delegates will gather.  There is no way that any GOP legislator is going to vote for more revenue this week and head up to the island to be accosted by the mob of 2,000 for doing so.
(7)         The national media, includ ing a Washington Post reporter who's been assigned to chronicle the countdown to shutdown, will be disappointed because Michigan will stay open for business.
(8)         And that means Lettermen, Leno, and O'Brien will have only the Lions to pick on in their monologues next week.


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