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In and outs of the political campaigns, focusing on Michigan and Lansing, Tim Skubick will report regularly throughout the primary and then general election campaigns.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Where's the Data?


     You've heard  the governor is driven by data. But somehow he can't slap a number on how many jobs his new biz tax will create; he just knows that it will work, so suck it in and trust him already.
      According to the Snyder administration there was no way to quantify the jobs number.  Apparently in this big wide world there is no computer modeling program that could regurgitate a jobs figure.  At least that is their story and they are sticking to it.
      But wait a minute.  That conservative think-tank up in Midland issued a news release the other day trumpeting the "fact" that the new 6% flat-rate corporate income tax will produce "57,000 jobs" in year one and 120,900 by the year 2016."
     How is it the Mackinac Center was able to grind out these numbers when their pal who is running the state could not?
     One of two things is happening here:  The governor didn't want to run the numbers or there really isn't a way to quantify the figure and the center is just making this stuff up. 
      Now the center will deny that allegation, which then means the governor didn't try hard enough to answer the question.  Either way something doesn't smell right.
      Others have joined in the debate.
      Former state treasurer Bob Kleine who worked for Governors Granholm and Engler does not sight any data but concludes, "No one knows for certain but the evidence says it will not" create jobs.
      The governor often points to a recent survey conducted by the small business guys.  He says they will use the tax cut money to create jobs, but the survey suggests that is third on the list.
     The report hints the extra savings will go into the benefits and pay checks of employees first, followed by the purchase of new equipment and then new jobs.
     Another report in the early 1990's concluded that a 10% across the board cut in state and local taxes would produce a 2% spike in employment, but here's the kicker, it would take up to twenty years.
     Maybe the bean counters at the Mackinac Center have a response to that?

6 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Worth noting that we added 79,000 jobs already this year. http://www.milmi.org/

Under the current tax plan.

Also worth noting that the only other state to use the same tax scheme...no taxes for S corps, partnerships and LLCs...is Idaho, which is 48th in per capita income and 40th in unemployment. Glad we are copying a successful state.

May 18, 2011 at 5:40 AM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The reason Snyder isn't throwing number out there is he doesn't see any new jobs being made. He's a business man and he knows that if he were the one getting the tax breaks he would pocket the extra money.

May 18, 2011 at 6:52 AM 
Blogger Peter and Kim said...

I hope our newpapers will keep count once this scheme is in place so we have objective numbers. Business hires when there is demand that cannot be met without additional employees, not simply because there is a tax cut.

May 18, 2011 at 6:58 AM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

One of the biggest fallacies foisted on the public is that you can run a government like a business. I believe that the last 30 years of this experiment has shown that is not true. When profits are taxed, business owners put the profits back into the business because they can then get a tax deduction - otherwise, the profits go into their pockets.

May 18, 2011 at 7:53 AM 
Anonymous Bill said...

You're just NOW questioning the Mackinac Center's "research"?

Lol.

May 23, 2011 at 1:22 PM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Oakland Press needs to stop using the Mackinac Center as their no all/tell all about Michigan. They are the most biased, right-wing, anti- union, anti teacher organization known to man. They love to write articles to newspapers purported to be accurate, that are really nothing but right-wing bias. It would appear that they are also now writing the Oakland Press editorials.

May 24, 2011 at 5:08 AM 

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