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Could It Happen Here, Too?
If it happened in New York, could it happen here?
You've probably read about the apparent efforts by the Obama
admininstration to get the current New York governor out of the race.
What did Gov. David Paterson do to deserve that? Try his 20% approval
ratings in the polls.
At first blush, one might ask, "What the heck is the president doing
mucking around in a race for governor in New York?" Doesn't he have
more important fish to fry?"
Fact is, he is taking care of a really big fish that will be on the
table in four years: His own reelection bid and obviously somebody in
the Obama inner circle has concluded the president needs to win New
York and the current governor won't be much help. Period and adios
Which brings us to Michigan and the 2010 race for governor. Mr.
Obama needs to win this state next time and if there is a conservative
Republican sitting where democrat Jennifer Granholm now sits, Obama's
chances are diminished.
Which brings us to the so-called Cherry problem. Everyone knows
Lt. Governor John Cherry can win the Democratic primary with one arm
tied behind his back. But then there is the general election.
If you listen closely, you can hear the chatter below the radar:
Can Cherry win in November?
And listen even closer and you can hear the same thing=2
0in the
White House.
Hence, is Mr. Cherry the next Mr. Paterson on the Obama hit list?
And does that open the door to a Andy Dillon run for the gov's
seat?
Great questions to ponder, wouldn't you say?
You've probably read about the apparent efforts by the Obama
admininstration to get the current New York governor out of the race.
What did Gov. David Paterson do to deserve that? Try his 20% approval
ratings in the polls.
At first blush, one might ask, "What the heck is the president doing
mucking around in a race for governor in New York?" Doesn't he have
more important fish to fry?"
Fact is, he is taking care of a really big fish that will be on the
table in four years: His own reelection bid and obviously somebody in
the Obama inner circle has concluded the president needs to win New
York and the current governor won't be much help. Period and adios
Which brings us to Michigan and the 2010 race for governor. Mr.
Obama needs to win this state next time and if there is a conservative
Republican sitting where democrat Jennifer Granholm now sits, Obama's
chances are diminished.
Which brings us to the so-called Cherry problem. Everyone knows
Lt. Governor John Cherry can win the Democratic primary with one arm
tied behind his back. But then there is the general election.
If you listen closely, you can hear the chatter below the radar:
Can Cherry win in November?
And listen even closer and you can hear the same thing=2
0in the
White House.
Hence, is Mr. Cherry the next Mr. Paterson on the Obama hit list?
And does that open the door to a Andy Dillon run for the gov's
seat?
Great questions to ponder, wouldn't you say?
posted by Tim Skubick at
5:36 PM
4 Comments:
But no one thinks there is any scenario where Obama loses New York in 2012. If New York is even on the table then, Obama is toast.
Cherry's success in 2010 will depend upon who the Republicans nominate. If it is Cox, then Cherry should win. Cox looks like the front runner. He is doing all the right things. He has tied up most of the Republican smart money. Bouchard is coming in too late, and wont be able to cut into Cox's money advantage on the Eastside of the State; and he doesnt have sufficient connections on the West side. Hoekstra cant raise serious money (unless he find a West side sugar daddy). Synder appears to be the only wild card who could prove to be the anti-Cox alternative.
Cherry can beat Cox because of his infidelity and Kilpatrick baggage. Plus, even the Republicans dont like Cox...they just accept him as a necessary evil. Come next August or September, if a poll shows Cox and Cherry even, Republican smart money players will be hedging their bets because they know Cherry is a force to be reckened with. He was the guy who always steps up when Granholm fumbles.
Cox is up 13 points on Cherry and his lead will only grow. Everyone knows Cox's baggage and Cox is still killing the polls. It's only going to continue. Cox is running away with this Governor's race.
And Geo. HW Bush was up in the polls by more than 13 points 13 months before the Nov 1992 election. DeVoss was up over Granholm. Etc. Political graveyards are filled with candidates who lost after being up in the polls over a year before the elecion.
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