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In and outs of the political campaigns, focusing on Michigan and Lansing, Tim Skubick will report regularly throughout the primary and then general election campaigns.

Saturday, September 4, 2010

Climb Every Mountain

If you are one of those who has declared the race for governor over,
you do so at your own peril.
However, for the democratic underdog to pull this one out, he has a
steeper than steep summit to mount and he needed to start hiking
To underscore the assignment for Virg Bernero one need only look at
the polling numbers.
The GOP guy Rick Snyder is strong across the board except in Wayne
County. In fact if the election was held there today, the EPIC-MRA
survey shows Democrat Bernero the winner by a comfortable 40-31% margin.
You can hear the cheers in the D camp.
Ah but…and there is always an ah, but.
Snyder sweeps every place else including Bernero's home town of
Lansing where the local Mayor is behind by 12 points. Home town boy,
not doing so hot.
The numbers are mind-numbing. Traverse City: Snyder 71%-Bernero
18%. Grand Rapids: It's 60-25%. The usually democratic vote rich I-75
corridor near Flint and Saginaw? Snyder with a 17 point spread. And
as it that is not enough, the Snyder squad even beats Bernero in
Detroit by a 14 point margin.
Ouch and double ouch.
Take a deep breath, Bernero's team asserts gasping for air.
First they point to the cool $8 million that Mr. Snyder spent to
win the GOP primary with about $6 million of that coming out of his
children's's inheritance. So much for the grassroots opening their
check books for him.
Second, most of the $2 million that Benrero spent for his TV
commercials was not poured into a positive campaign to boost Benero's
image. Nope. Most of it went into attacking his opponent in the
primary Andy Dillon.
Now that strategy worked to defeat Dillon but some of the voters
who saw the ads came away with a negative attitude about Bernero. So
his commercials actually drove up his negatives rather then reduce them.
So game over?
Not by a long shot.
Recall nobody laid a glove on Mr. Snyder during the GOP primary.
Suffice it to say, Mr. Bernero will not be nearly as kind.
However if by October first or so, Mr Bernero has not established a
base camp higher up the Snyder mountain, his chances of getting enough
oxygen to make it to the top could fade.


Blogger marv rein said...

??? During the last three years,,the Democratic attack on anyone above M-10,were attacked continually.HOW..this area of Michigan business was hunting and fishing,but in the last Tens years,the attack on Hunters,hikers,and fishing was Unbelievable.
There is only three good ways NORTH,,and many times on the way back,,these routes were blocked and every car was stopped,,every body in the car a 3th degree talk,and many tickets were given out,,for small stuff.
the democrats made north of m-10 a GO-2-Jail Zone.

September 5, 2010 at 3:37 AM 

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