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In and outs of the political campaigns, focusing on Michigan and Lansing, Tim Skubick will report regularly throughout the primary and then general election campaigns.

Thursday, June 12, 2008

This Poll Counts

     This Poll Counts
         Normally presidential polls 145 days before the election are next to meaningless, but the media publishes them anyway because it's easier than talking about the issues.
         That not withstanding, the recent TV-2 Rasmussen survey is noteworthy because it is the bench mark for what follows.  It was the first poll completed after Barack Obama wrapped up the nomination and it shows him and John McCain in a statistical dead heat in the head to head.
        What is more important are some of the internal numbers.
        Obama continues to have a challenge with male voters.  McCain holds an eleven-point edge but that is down from a 19-point lead he enjoyed last month.  In other words, Obama is making inroads with males.
       The female vote holds steady for the democratic nominee as he has a 13-point lead there.
       Older voters are evenly divided and Obama continues to win the under 30 vote.
       But here is the number that stands out.  McCain, after having some problems appealing to the conservative wing of his party, is getting 83% of the total GOP vote.  Obviously not everyone is on board, yet, but it's a respectable number.
      However Obama is worse off.  He corrals only 74% of the democratic vote.  While that is up four points over last month, it strongly suggests that the top democrat is not the top democrat with some democrats.
      Perhaps those are disgruntled Hillary Clinton backers who are still not on board despite the Hill's pleading to do so. Perhaps there are some white democrats who are not comfortable with an African American leading the ticket.  That has been a problem in other states.
     As for the so-called dream ticket of Obama-Clinton: 55% of Michigan democrats say yes while 31% say no thanks.
     Democrats remain confident Michigan will remain a blue state while the GOP schemes to turn it red.  Right now it's a decided deep purple…a blend of both.


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